Gratiot

Next 7 daysLow9%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late March

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid March – early May
Record year: 201718
Trend: −9%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +93%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	11	0
2002	10	0
2003	10	4
2004	9	2
2005	14	10
2006	8	2
2007	11	4
2008	9	1
2009	9	5
2010	13	5
2011	9	0
2012	9	9
2013	9	9
2014	16	16
2015	16	16
2016	6	6
2017	18	18
2018	12	19
2019	7	17
2020	12	27
2021	10	27
2022	8	12
2023	15	23
2024	7	20
2025	6	18
2026	10	35

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 13 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.4

Fires detected in recent days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑

Sun7°

Mon9°

Tue13°

Wed14°

Thu15°

Fri14°

Sat17°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.4 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.8

likely 0.0–2.4 · usual 0.0–0.7

Season

Starts ~22 March
Peak ~29 March

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late March – mid October

Onset: late March
Peak: late March
End: mid October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid March – early May
34% of annual activity
mid August – early September
13% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −9%/10Raw: +93%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2014 to 4.7× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.85).

Unusual years

7

2007
11
season began 3 weeks late
2013
9
season began 5 weeks late
2016
6
season began 4 weeks late
2017
18
1.8× the normal annual activity
season began 5 weeks early
2022
8
season began 22 weeks late
2024
7
season began 3 weeks early
season ended 13 weeks early
2026
10
season began 4 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson