Grand Traverse

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late August – mid October
Record year: 201315
Trend: 0%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +76%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	6	0
2002	5	0
2003	5	2
2004	5	1
2005	5	0
2006	6	2
2007	5	1
2008	5	0
2009	5	0
2010	5	0
2011	7	3
2012	8	8
2013	15	15
2014	1	1
2015	9	9
2016	13	13
2017	2	2
2018	7	9
2019	4	7
2020	2	5
2021	6	9
2022	8	16
2023	1	3
2024	3	5
2025	6	19
2026	6	25

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 13 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

This year is more active than normal↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun6°

Mon9°

Tue10°

Wed10°

Thu10°

Fri10°

Sat12°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.2

likely 0.0–0.9 · usual 0.0–0.2

Season

Starts ~19 April
Peak ~6 September

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid April – mid October

Onset: mid April
Peak: early September
End: mid October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late August – mid October
38% of annual activity
early May – early June
23% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: 0%/10Raw: +76%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2011 to 13.8× its earlier level (p 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.82).

Unusual years

15

2011
7
peak 3.1× stronger than normal
2012
8
peak 3.0× stronger than normal
season began 4 weeks late
season ended 9 weeks late
2013
15
3.1× the normal annual activity
peak 6.0× stronger than normal
season began 3 weeks late
season ended 3 weeks early
2014
1
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season ended 27 weeks early
2015
9
peak 4.0× stronger than normal
2016
13
2.7× the normal annual activity
peak 4.0× stronger than normal
season began 4 weeks late
season ended 3 weeks early
2017
2
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
season began 14 weeks late
season ended 5 weeks early
2018
7
peak 5.0× stronger than normal
season began 5 weeks late
season ended 4 weeks early
2019
4
season ended 3 weeks early
2020
2
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
season began 7 weeks late
season ended 9 weeks late
2021
6
peak 3.0× stronger than normal
season began 3 weeks late
season ended 4 weeks early
2022
8
peak 6.0× stronger than normal
season began 3 weeks early
season ended 4 weeks early
2023
1
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season began 20 weeks late
season ended 5 weeks early
2024
3
season began 19 weeks late
season ended 3 weeks late
2026
6
peak 3.0× stronger than normal
season began 4 weeks late
season ended 3 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson