Gogebic

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late March

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early August – mid September
Record year: 20018
Trend: −107%/ 10significant · on raw data: 0%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	8	0
2002	7	0
2003	7	0
2004	7	0
2005	7	0
2006	7	0
2007	7	0
2008	7	0
2009	7	0
2010	7	0
2011	7	1
2012	1	1
2013	0	0
2014	0	0
2015	0	0
2016	0	0
2017	0	0
2018	0	0
2019	0	0
2020	0	0
2021	0	0
2022	0	1
2023	1	2
2024	0	0
2025	0	1
2026	7	24

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 12 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Vegetation is drying out↑
A dry month (28 mm)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun5°

Mon9°

Tue10°

Wed11°

Thu9°

Fri11°

Sat12°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.2

likely 0.0–0.5 · usual 0.0–0.4

Season

Starts ~22 March
Peak ~12 April

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late March – mid October

Onset: late March
Peak: mid April
End: mid October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

early August – mid September
23% of annual activity
early April – early May
20% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −107%/10Raw: 0%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.60). ODLAR's record changes level in 2013 (p < 0.001): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

3

2012
1
season ended 27 weeks early
2023
1
season began 6 weeks late
season ended 23 weeks early
2026
7
peak 9.9× stronger than normal
season began 28 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson