Genesee

Next 7 daysLow1%

Quiet now. The season usually starts early April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early April – mid May
Record year: 201228
Trend: −8%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +88%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	16	4
2002	11	0
2003	12	2
2004	11	1
2005	15	3
2006	11	0
2007	11	0
2008	11	0
2009	13	2
2010	12	0
2011	11	0
2012	28	28
2013	24	24
2014	16	16
2015	18	18
2016	8	8
2017	10	10
2018	11	22
2019	11	17
2020	7	15
2021	6	16
2022	2	15
2023	16	36
2024	12	27
2025	11	27
2026	3	10

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

3.9×

usual = 1×

This month: 1.0
Usual (median): 0.3
Rank: 1 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.2

No rain expected in the coming days↑
Vegetation is drying out↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun7°

Mon9°

Tue13°

Wed14°

Thu17°

Fri14°

Sat17°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.2 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.4 expected · usual 0.5

likely 0.0–1.5 · usual 0.0–0.7

Season

Starts ~5 April
Peak ~12 April

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early April – early October

Onset: early April
Peak: mid April
End: early October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

early April – mid May
28% of annual activity
early August – late August
15% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −8%/10Raw: +88%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 18.3× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2016 (p 0.05): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

12

2012
28
2.5× the normal annual activity
season began 3 weeks early
2013
24
2.1× the normal annual activity
2014
16
season began 4 weeks late
2015
18
1.6× the normal annual activity
season ended 7 weeks early
2018
11
season ended 7 weeks early
2019
11
season began 4 weeks late
season ended 6 weeks late
2020
7
only 0.6× the normal annual activity
season began 10 weeks late
2021
6
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
season ended 11 weeks late
2022
2
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season ended 19 weeks early
2023
16
season began 6 weeks late
2025
11
season ended 7 weeks late
2026
3
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 22 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson