Emmet

Next 7 daysLow8%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late September – early November
Record year: 20246
Trend: 0%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +79%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	2	0
2002	2	1
2003	2	0
2004	2	0
2005	2	0
2006	2	0
2007	2	2
2008	2	0
2009	2	0
2010	2	0
2011	2	0
2012	1	1
2013	0	0
2014	1	1
2015	2	2
2016	2	2
2017	0	0
2018	2	4
2019	0	0
2020	0	0
2021	5	10
2022	5	10
2023	3	5
2024	6	11
2025	4	14
2026	2	7

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.1
Rank: 15 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.3

Fires detected in recent days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
A dry month (21 mm)↑

Sun5°

Mon9°

Tue10°

Wed11°

Thu11°

Fri10°

Sat14°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.3 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.2

likely 0.0–1.0 · usual 0.0–0.2

Season

Starts ~12 April
Peak ~3 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid April – early November

Onset: mid April
Peak: early May
End: early November

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late September – early November
25% of annual activity
mid April – early May
19% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: 0%/10Raw: +79%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2014 to 16.0× its earlier level (p 0.04). ODLAR's record changes level in 2021 (p 0.05): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

11

2012
1
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
season ended 27 weeks early
2014
1
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
season began 23 weeks late
season ended 6 weeks early
2015
2
season ended 18 weeks early
2016
2
season began 21 weeks late
2018
2
season began 7 weeks late
season ended 8 weeks early
2021
5
2.3× the normal annual activity
peak 6.7× stronger than normal
season began 8 weeks late
2022
5
2.3× the normal annual activity
peak 10× stronger than normal
season began 4 weeks early
season ended 10 weeks early
2023
3
season began 10 weeks early
season ended 3 weeks early
2024
6
2.8× the normal annual activity
peak 6.7× stronger than normal
season began 9 weeks late
2025
4
1.8× the normal annual activity
peak 6.7× stronger than normal
2026
2
season began 9 weeks early
season ended 28 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson