Eaton

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts early March

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early March – early May
Record year: 20079
Trend: +4%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +61%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	5	0
2002	4	7
2003	6	3
2004	4	3
2005	6	6
2006	4	1
2007	9	5
2008	4	1
2009	3	4
2010	4	6
2011	4	1
2012	6	6
2013	4	4
2014	1	1
2015	4	4
2016	5	5
2017	7	7
2018	3	9
2019	3	7
2020	5	9
2021	5	8
2022	4	9
2023	7	14
2024	8	21
2025	4	8
2026	2	10

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 12 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Vegetation is drying out↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
Hot weather (13 °C)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun7°

Mon9°

Tue13°

Wed14°

Thu15°

Fri14°

Sat17°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.2

likely 0.0–1.2 · usual 0.0–0.3

Season

Starts ~8 March
Peak ~12 April

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early March – mid September

Onset: early March
Peak: mid April
End: mid September

Critical windows

early March – early May
57% of annual activity
early June – late June
8% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +4%/10Raw: +61%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2017 to 2.9× its earlier level (p 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.77).

Unusual years

13

2005
6
season began 4 weeks late
2007
9
2.2× the normal annual activity
season began 4 weeks late
2012
6
season ended 17 weeks early
2013
4
season began 3 weeks late
2014
1
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 10 weeks late
season ended 17 weeks early
2015
4
season ended 20 weeks early
2018
3
season began 4 weeks late
season ended 21 weeks early
2021
5
season ended 25 weeks early
2022
4
season began 23 weeks late
2023
7
season began 5 weeks late
2024
8
2.0× the normal annual activity
season began 5 weeks early
season ended 20 weeks early
2025
4
season began 4 weeks late
season ended 18 weeks early
2026
2
season began 9 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson