Dickinson

Next 7 daysLow0%

Fire season: about 4 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late March – mid May
Record year: 20194
Trend: 0%/ 10not significant · on raw data: 0%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	1	1
2002	1	0
2003	1	0
2004	1	1
2005	1	0
2006	1	0
2007	1	1
2008	1	0
2009	1	1
2010	1	2
2011	1	0
2012	2	2
2013	0	0
2014	0	0
2015	2	2
2016	1	1
2017	2	2
2018	0	1
2019	4	5
2020	3	6
2021	0	0
2022	1	1
2023	0	1
2024	2	2
2025	0	0
2026	0	1

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 12 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Vegetation is drying out↑
Hot weather (10 °C)↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun6°

Mon9°

Tue12°

Wed12°

Thu10°

Fri11°

Sat11°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.1

likely 0.0–0.8 · usual 0.0–0.2

Season

Ends ~7 December
Peak ~5 April

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late March – early December

Onset: late March
Peak: early April
End: early December

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late March – mid May
49% of annual activity
late December – mid January
9% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: 0%/10Raw: 0%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.24). ODLAR's record has none (p 1.00).

Unusual years

8

2012
2
2.0× the normal annual activity
peak 5.7× stronger than normal
season ended 30 weeks early
2015
2
2.0× the normal annual activity
peak 5.7× stronger than normal
season began 6 weeks late
2016
1
peak 5.7× stronger than normal
season began 13 weeks late
season ended 20 weeks early
2017
2
2.0× the normal annual activity
peak 11× stronger than normal
season began 39 weeks late
season ended 6 weeks late
2019
4
4.0× the normal annual activity
peak 17× stronger than normal
season began 5 weeks late
season ended 5 weeks early
2020
3
3.0× the normal annual activity
peak 17× stronger than normal
season ended 34 weeks early
2022
1
peak 5.7× stronger than normal
season ended 32 weeks early
2024
2
2.0× the normal annual activity
peak 5.7× stronger than normal
season began 23 weeks late
season ended 7 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson