Delta

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early April – early June
Record year: 202221
Trend: −7%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +28%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	6	6
2002	6	5
2003	4	3
2004	6	5
2005	1	0
2006	1	0
2007	1	0
2008	1	1
2009	4	2
2010	6	3
2011	4	2
2012	0	0
2013	0	0
2014	3	3
2015	1	1
2016	0	0
2017	3	3
2018	6	8
2019	3	3
2020	0	0
2021	1	1
2022	21	23
2023	1	4
2024	5	9
2025	8	12
2026	7	18

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 12 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Vegetation is drying out↑
This year is more active than normal↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun7°

Mon8°

Tue11°

Wed12°

Thu11°

Fri11°

Sat12°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual 0.0

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.0

likely 0.0–0.2 · usual 0.0–0.0

Season

Starts ~12 April
Peak ~10 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid April – early October

Onset: mid April
Peak: early May
End: early October

Critical windows

early April – early June
67% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −7%/10Raw: +28%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.24). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.58).

Unusual years

5

2014
3
season began 11 weeks late
2015
1
season ended 17 weeks early
2017
3
season began 24 weeks late
2021
1
season began 23 weeks late
2022
21
7.0× the normal annual activity
peak 7.7× stronger than normal

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson