Crawford

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early April – late May
Record year: 2016121
Trend: −9%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +54%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	20	4
2002	39	11
2003	22	9
2004	11	2
2005	48	16
2006	40	13
2007	36	12
2008	13	4
2009	37	10
2010	40	13
2011	19	11
2012	30	30
2013	5	5
2014	5	5
2015	42	42
2016	121	121
2017	29	29
2018	57	83
2019	16	33
2020	1	3
2021	9	19
2022	18	32
2023	44	82
2024	14	30
2025	34	48
2026	15	46

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 12 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Vegetation is drying out↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
Hot weather (11 °C)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun6°

Mon9°

Tue12°

Wed14°

Thu13°

Fri12°

Sat16°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.1

likely 0.0–0.5 · usual 0.0–0.1

Season

Starts ~12 April
Peak ~2 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid April – mid August

Onset: mid April
Peak: early August
End: mid August

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

early April – late May
42% of annual activity
mid July – mid August
30% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −9%/10Raw: +54%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2015 to 4.6× its earlier level (p 0.007). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.79).

Unusual years

6

2007
36
season began 10 weeks late
2013
5
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
2014
5
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
2015
42
season ended 13 weeks early
2016
121
4.2× the normal annual activity
peak 6.7× stronger than normal
season began 14 weeks late
2019
16
season ended 13 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson