Clinton

Next 7 daysLow1%

Quiet now. The season usually starts early April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late March – early May
Record year: 202117
Trend: −13%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +89%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	11	4
2002	12	3
2003	11	5
2004	9	2
2005	14	8
2006	8	4
2007	12	1
2008	10	1
2009	9	2
2010	7	8
2011	9	2
2012	13	13
2013	6	6
2014	8	8
2015	2	2
2016	5	5
2017	4	4
2018	13	22
2019	3	7
2020	7	18
2021	17	39
2022	5	19
2023	15	28
2024	13	28
2025	13	22
2026	16	46

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Above normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 5.6×

usual = 1×

This month: 1.0
Usual (median): 0.2
Rank: 4 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.2

Vegetation is drying out↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
Hot weather (13 °C)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun7°

Mon9°

Tue13°

Wed14°

Thu15°

Fri14°

Sat17°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.2 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.1 expected · usual 0.2

likely 0.0–1.0 · usual 0.0–0.3

Season

Starts ~5 April
Peak ~12 April

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early April – mid October

Onset: early April
Peak: mid April
End: mid October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late March – early May
32% of annual activity
late September – mid October
10% of annual activity
late August – early September
10% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −13%/10Raw: +89%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2018 to 5.0× its earlier level (p 0.005). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.60).

Unusual years

9

2012
13
peak 4.0× stronger than normal
2015
2
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season began 11 weeks late
season ended 16 weeks early
2019
3
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
2020
7
season began 8 weeks early
2021
17
peak 4.0× stronger than normal
season began 5 weeks late
2022
5
season began 3 weeks early
2023
15
peak 3.0× stronger than normal
2024
13
season began 4 weeks early
2025
13
peak 3.0× stronger than normal
season began 3 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson