Clare

Next 7 daysLow1%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early April – mid April
Record year: 200440
Trend: −18%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +46%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	4	0
2002	3	3
2003	5	2
2004	40	13
2005	3	1
2006	3	0
2007	3	0
2008	3	0
2009	3	0
2010	3	2
2011	3	0
2012	2	2
2013	2	2
2014	1	1
2015	4	4
2016	2	2
2017	2	2
2018	1	2
2019	1	2
2020	2	8
2021	0	0
2022	2	4
2023	9	15
2024	10	19
2025	15	26
2026	2	7

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 12 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.2

Vegetation is drying out↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
A dry month (10 mm)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun6°

Mon9°

Tue13°

Wed12°

Thu14°

Fri14°

Sat16°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.2 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.2

likely 0.0–1.2 · usual 0.0–0.3

Season

Starts ~12 April
Peak ~12 April

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid April – mid October

Onset: mid April
Peak: mid April
End: mid October

Critical windows

early April – mid April
34% of annual activity
late August – mid October
28% of annual activity
late May – early June
7% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −18%/10Raw: +46%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.08). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.21).

Unusual years

14

2004
39
13× the normal annual activity
peak 37× stronger than normal
season ended 28 weeks early
2012
2
season ended 23 weeks early
2013
2
season began 6 weeks late
2014
1
season ended 27 weeks early
2015
4
season ended 21 weeks early
2017
2
season began 21 weeks late
2018
1
season began 22 weeks late
2019
1
season began 5 weeks early
season ended 34 weeks early
2020
2
season began 4 weeks late
2022
2
season began 30 weeks late
season ended 11 weeks late
2023
9
peak 7.0× stronger than normal
2024
10
3.2× the normal annual activity
peak 8.0× stronger than normal
season began 6 weeks early
2025
15
4.8× the normal annual activity
peak 7.0× stronger than normal
season began 8 weeks late
2026
2
season began 6 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson