Cheboygan

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late August – late September
Record year: 20127
Trend: −10%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +46%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	2	0
2002	2	0
2003	2	0
2004	2	0
2005	1	2
2006	1	1
2007	2	0
2008	2	0
2009	2	1
2010	2	1
2011	2	0
2012	7	7
2013	0	0
2014	2	2
2015	1	1
2016	6	6
2017	6	6
2018	1	1
2019	0	2
2020	1	3
2021	0	0
2022	1	1
2023	3	8
2024	3	6
2025	1	1
2026	0	3

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 13 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Vegetation is drying out↑
A dry month (25 mm)↑
Hot weather (10 °C)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun5°

Mon9°

Tue10°

Wed12°

Thu12°

Fri10°

Sat13°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.0 expected · usual 0.0

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.0

likely 0.0–0.3 · usual 0.0–0.0

Season

Starts ~12 April
Peak ~26 July

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid April – mid September

Onset: mid April
Peak: late July
End: mid September

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late August – late September
25% of annual activity
mid July – early August
24% of annual activity
early April – mid April
13% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −10%/10Raw: +46%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 6.9× its earlier level (p 0.04). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.40).

Unusual years

11

2010
2
season began 3 weeks early
2012
7
4.2× the normal annual activity
peak 13× stronger than normal
season began 15 weeks late
season ended 9 weeks early
2015
1
season ended 25 weeks early
2016
6
3.6× the normal annual activity
peak 9.3× stronger than normal
season began 15 weeks late
2017
6
3.6× the normal annual activity
2018
1
season began 16 weeks late
season ended 8 weeks early
2020
1
season began 18 weeks late
season ended 6 weeks early
2022
1
season began 4 weeks late
season ended 20 weeks early
2023
3
season began 7 weeks late
2024
3
season began 6 weeks early
2025
1
season began 7 weeks late
season ended 17 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson