Charlevoix

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts early May

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid June – late July
Record year: 20217
Trend: −10%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +58%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	2	0
2002	2	0
2003	2	0
2004	2	0
2005	2	0
2006	2	0
2007	2	0
2008	2	0
2009	2	0
2010	2	0
2011	2	2
2012	0	0
2013	1	1
2014	0	0
2015	1	1
2016	0	0
2017	3	3
2018	3	6
2019	0	1
2020	1	5
2021	7	13
2022	2	4
2023	1	1
2024	1	4
2025	0	2
2026	4	24

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 12 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Vegetation is drying out↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
Hot weather (11 °C)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun6°

Mon9°

Tue12°

Wed14°

Thu13°

Fri12°

Sat16°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.2

likely 0.0–0.9 · usual 0.0–0.2

Season

Starts ~10 May
Peak ~17 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early May – early November

Onset: early May
Peak: mid May
End: early November

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid June – late July
30% of annual activity
early May – late May
27% of annual activity
mid August – late August
8% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −10%/10Raw: +58%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2017 to 17.3× its earlier level (p 0.002). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.29).

Unusual years

10

2013
1
peak 4.7× stronger than normal
season ended 24 weeks early
2015
1
peak 4.7× stronger than normal
season ended 25 weeks early
2017
3
peak 9.4× stronger than normal
2018
3
peak 4.7× stronger than normal
2020
1
peak 4.7× stronger than normal
2021
7
4.4× the normal annual activity
peak 19× stronger than normal
2022
2
peak 9.4× stronger than normal
season ended 24 weeks early
2023
1
peak 4.7× stronger than normal
season began 34 weeks late
2024
1
peak 4.7× stronger than normal
season began 31 weeks late
2026
4
peak 14× stronger than normal

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson