Cass

Next 7 daysLow1%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late March

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid March – early May
Record year: 201329
Trend: 0%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +80%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	12	0
2002	11	0
2003	13	2
2004	14	2
2005	15	5
2006	11	0
2007	14	4
2008	14	3
2009	17	5
2010	16	3
2011	14	2
2012	24	24
2013	29	29
2014	8	8
2015	7	7
2016	7	7
2017	9	9
2018	11	16
2019	7	9
2020	14	24
2021	18	33
2022	9	13
2023	11	20
2024	18	37
2025	12	25
2026	12	37

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 4.5×

usual = 1×

This month: 1.0
Usual (median): 0.2
Rank: 2 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Vegetation is drying out↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
Hot weather (13 °C)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun8°

Mon9°

Tue12°

Wed14°

Thu17°

Fri15°

Sat17°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.8 expected · usual 0.7

likely 0.0–1.7 · usual 0.0–0.8

Season

Starts ~22 March
Peak ~12 April

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late March – early October

Onset: late March
Peak: mid April
End: early October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid March – early May
40% of annual activity
early September – mid September
9% of annual activity
late July – early August
7% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: 0%/10Raw: +80%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 7.9× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.10).

Unusual years

11

2012
24
1.8× the normal annual activity
season ended 3 weeks early
2013
29
2.2× the normal annual activity
peak 2.5× stronger than normal
2014
8
season ended 15 weeks early
2015
7
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
season ended 4 weeks late
2016
7
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
season ended 8 weeks late
2017
9
season began 5 weeks early
season ended 8 weeks late
2019
7
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
season ended 11 weeks early
2022
9
season began 3 weeks late
season ended 13 weeks late
2023
11
season began 4 weeks late
season ended 3 weeks early
2024
18
season began 3 weeks early
season ended 4 weeks early
2025
12
season ended 4 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson