Calhoun

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late March

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid March – early May
Record year: 201236
Trend: −28%/ 10significant · on raw data: +34%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	14	3
2002	19	6
2003	24	16
2004	13	9
2005	19	12
2006	24	14
2007	10	11
2008	10	6
2009	14	9
2010	16	9
2011	10	5
2012	36	36
2013	16	16
2014	15	15
2015	17	17
2016	11	11
2017	20	20
2018	8	17
2019	4	12
2020	3	16
2021	15	27
2022	7	16
2023	9	15
2024	14	35
2025	5	13
2026	14	48

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.1
Rank: 14 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Vegetation is drying out↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
This year is more active than normal↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun7°

Mon8°

Tue12°

Wed14°

Thu16°

Fri14°

Sat16°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.8

likely 0.0–2.8 · usual 0.0–0.7

Season

Starts ~22 March
Peak ~12 April

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late March – late September

Onset: late March
Peak: mid April
End: late September

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid March – early May
47% of annual activity
late August – mid September
15% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −28%/10Raw: +34%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 2.1× its earlier level (p 0.004). ODLAR's record changes level in 2018 (p 0.02): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

10

2012
36
peak 3.4× stronger than normal
2015
17
season ended 11 weeks late
2017
20
season began 3 weeks early
2019
4
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
2020
3
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season began 7 weeks late
season ended 6 weeks early
2021
15
season began 3 weeks early
season ended 18 weeks early
2022
7
season began 12 weeks late
season ended 10 weeks late
2023
9
season ended 6 weeks late
2025
5
season began 6 weeks late
2026
14
season began 3 weeks early
season ended 7 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson