Branch

Next 7 daysLow8%

Fire season: last week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early March – early May
Record year: 202318
Trend: 0%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +96%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	9	1
2002	9	0
2003	10	5
2004	8	3
2005	8	3
2006	9	7
2007	9	1
2008	9	4
2009	8	2
2010	9	8
2011	9	7
2012	8	8
2013	7	7
2014	14	14
2015	13	13
2016	10	10
2017	6	6
2018	11	18
2019	6	11
2020	6	21
2021	11	24
2022	8	21
2023	18	29
2024	11	23
2025	3	15
2026	10	20

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Fires where there usually are none

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 1.7
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 1 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.3

Fires detected in recent days↑
Vegetation is drying out↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑

Sun7°

Mon8°

Tue12°

Wed14°

Thu16°

Fri14°

Sat16°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.3 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~1.5 expected · usual 1.6

likely 0.0–3.4 · usual 0.0–2.6

Season

Starts ~1 March
Peak ~19 April

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early March – early November

Onset: early March
Peak: mid April
End: early November

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

early March – early May
34% of annual activity
late May – late May
7% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: 0%/10Raw: +96%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2014 to 4.0× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 1.00).

Unusual years

10

2012
8
season began 3 weeks early
2013
7
season began 4 weeks late
2014
14
1.6× the normal annual activity
2015
13
peak 3.5× stronger than normal
season began 3 weeks late
2016
10
peak 3.0× stronger than normal
season began 6 weeks late
2018
11
peak 4.5× stronger than normal
season began 3 weeks late
season ended 24 weeks early
2021
11
season ended 22 weeks early
2022
8
season began 8 weeks late
2023
18
2.1× the normal annual activity
2025
3
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 26 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson