Berrien

Next 7 daysLow13%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late March

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid March – late April
Record year: 201223
Trend: 0%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +107%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	13	1
2002	18	7
2003	14	4
2004	14	1
2005	14	2
2006	12	1
2007	18	3
2008	16	2
2009	13	1
2010	15	4
2011	13	0
2012	23	23
2013	7	7
2014	15	15
2015	18	18
2016	20	20
2017	12	12
2018	18	31
2019	12	28
2020	17	48
2021	12	30
2022	18	37
2023	10	23
2024	16	43
2025	18	36
2026	8	35

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.4
Rank: 18 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.3

Fires detected in recent days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
Vegetation is drying out↑

Sun8°

Mon9°

Tue12°

Wed14°

Thu17°

Fri15°

Sat17°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.3 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~1.0 expected · usual 1.7

likely 0.0–3.2 · usual 0.0–1.4

Season

Starts ~22 March
Peak ~29 March

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late March – late October

Onset: late March
Peak: late March
End: late October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid March – late April
25% of annual activity
late August – late September
20% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: 0%/10Raw: +107%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 11.2× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 1.00).

Unusual years

13

2002
18
season ended 3 weeks late
2012
23
season ended 4 weeks early
2013
7
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
season ended 10 weeks early
2014
15
season ended 5 weeks early
2015
18
season ended 5 weeks late
2016
20
season began 6 weeks early
season ended 10 weeks early
2017
12
season ended 8 weeks early
2018
18
season began 4 weeks late
season ended 10 weeks late
2019
12
season ended 5 weeks early
2020
17
season began 5 weeks late
season ended 6 weeks late
2021
12
season began 3 weeks early
2023
10
season began 7 weeks early
season ended 7 weeks early
2026
8
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
season ended 3 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson