Benzie

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts early March

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early April – mid May
Record year: 202121
Trend: −19%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +49%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	4	0
2002	3	0
2003	3	0
2004	3	0
2005	3	0
2006	3	0
2007	3	0
2008	5	2
2009	3	0
2010	3	1
2011	6	2
2012	6	6
2013	2	2
2014	0	0
2015	1	1
2016	4	4
2017	2	2
2018	0	0
2019	1	3
2020	2	3
2021	21	39
2022	3	3
2023	4	6
2024	2	3
2025	1	2
2026	7	31

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 12 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

No rain expected in the coming days↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun6°

Mon9°

Tue10°

Wed10°

Thu10°

Fri10°

Sat12°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.4

likely 0.0–1.7 · usual 0.0–0.4

Season

Starts ~1 March
Peak ~3 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early March – early October

Onset: early March
Peak: early May
End: early October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

early April – mid May
36% of annual activity
late February – early March
9% of annual activity
late September – early October
8% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −19%/10Raw: +49%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2011 to 16.9× its earlier level (p 0.01). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.07).

Unusual years

12

2013
2
season began 10 weeks late
season ended 4 weeks early
2015
1
season began 36 weeks late
season ended 6 weeks late
2016
4
season ended 6 weeks early
2017
2
season ended 23 weeks early
2019
1
season began 9 weeks late
season ended 21 weeks early
2020
2
season began 12 weeks late
season ended 4 weeks early
2021
21
6.6× the normal annual activity
peak 14× stronger than normal
season ended 11 weeks early
2022
3
season ended 19 weeks early
2023
4
season began 9 weeks early
season ended 5 weeks early
2024
2
season began 8 weeks late
season ended 22 weeks early
2025
1
season began 24 weeks late
season ended 6 weeks early
2026
7
peak 7.0× stronger than normal
season began 10 weeks late
season ended 20 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson