Bay

Next 7 daysLow19%

Quiet now. The season usually starts early March

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early March – early May
Record year: 200712
Trend: −1%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +91%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	4	0
2002	3	0
2003	4	1
2004	4	0
2005	4	0
2006	4	0
2007	12	4
2008	4	0
2009	3	2
2010	6	2
2011	4	0
2012	6	6
2013	1	1
2014	8	8
2015	2	2
2016	2	2
2017	6	6
2018	6	7
2019	9	11
2020	1	10
2021	1	2
2022	3	8
2023	0	3
2024	9	19
2025	6	7
2026	5	14

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 12 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.4

Fires detected in recent days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
Vegetation is drying out↑

Sun7°

Mon10°

Tue13°

Wed14°

Thu15°

Fri14°

Sat16°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.4 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.2 expected · usual 0.1

likely 0.0–0.3 · usual 0.0–0.1

Season

Starts ~8 March
Peak ~6 September

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early March – mid September

Onset: early March
Peak: early September
End: mid September

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

early March – early May
47% of annual activity
late August – mid September
23% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −1%/10Raw: +91%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 8.0× its earlier level (p 0.003). ODLAR's record has none (p 1.00).

Unusual years

13

2007
12
peak 8.6× stronger than normal
season began 5 weeks late
2012
6
peak 4.0× stronger than normal
season began 3 weeks late
2013
1
season began 27 weeks late
2014
8
peak 4.0× stronger than normal
season began 3 weeks late
2015
2
season ended 8 weeks late
2017
6
season began 4 weeks early
season ended 15 weeks early
2019
9
peak 5.0× stronger than normal
2020
1
season began 35 weeks late
season ended 8 weeks late
2021
1
season ended 27 weeks early
2022
3
season ended 5 weeks early
2024
9
peak 4.0× stronger than normal
2025
6
peak 4.0× stronger than normal
2026
5
peak 3.0× stronger than normal
season ended 7 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson