Barry

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late March

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid March – early May
Record year: 202116
Trend: −11%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +78%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	7	0
2002	6	0
2003	10	6
2004	7	1
2005	8	1
2006	10	7
2007	8	2
2008	8	1
2009	8	1
2010	11	3
2011	11	3
2012	8	8
2013	8	8
2014	8	8
2015	13	13
2016	9	9
2017	4	4
2018	5	11
2019	7	9
2020	4	14
2021	16	37
2022	2	3
2023	6	14
2024	12	22
2025	3	7
2026	12	39

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.1
Rank: 14 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Vegetation is drying out↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
This year is more active than normal↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun7°

Mon9°

Tue13°

Wed14°

Thu15°

Fri14°

Sat17°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.6

likely 0.0–2.2 · usual 0.0–0.3

Season

Starts ~22 March
Peak ~12 April

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late March – early October

Onset: late March
Peak: mid April
End: early October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid March – early May
54% of annual activity
late August – early September
10% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −11%/10Raw: +78%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 5.3× its earlier level (p 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.24).

Unusual years

8

2015
13
season ended 9 weeks late
2017
4
season began 4 weeks late
season ended 17 weeks early
2018
5
season began 3 weeks early
2019
7
season ended 13 weeks late
2021
16
2.0× the normal annual activity
2022
2
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season ended 21 weeks early
2024
12
season began 4 weeks late
2025
3
only 0.4× the normal annual activity

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson