Baraga

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid April – late May
Record year: 201511
Trend: −4%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +24%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	2	0
2002	1	2
2003	1	3
2004	1	0
2005	1	0
2006	1	0
2007	7	9
2008	1	0
2009	3	3
2010	1	0
2011	1	0
2012	2	2
2013	1	1
2014	4	4
2015	11	11
2016	0	0
2017	1	1
2018	1	3
2019	0	0
2020	1	1
2021	1	3
2022	0	1
2023	4	4
2024	2	6
2025	0	1
2026	46	136

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 12 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Vegetation is drying out↑
This year is more active than normal↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun6°

Mon9°

Tue13°

Wed12°

Thu12°

Fri11°

Sat13°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.1

likely 0.0–0.4 · usual 0.0–0.1

Season

Starts ~19 April
Peak ~10 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid April – mid October

Onset: mid April
Peak: early May
End: mid October

Critical windows

mid April – late May
60% of annual activity
early August – late August
8% of annual activity
mid September – late September
6% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −4%/10Raw: +24%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.46). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.20).

Unusual years

14

2001
2
2.2× the normal annual activity
2007
7
6.7× the normal annual activity
peak 17× stronger than normal
season ended 23 weeks early
2009
3
3.3× the normal annual activity
peak 7.3× stronger than normal
2012
2
2.0× the normal annual activity
peak 5.6× stronger than normal
season ended 25 weeks early
2013
1
season began 24 weeks late
2014
4
3.9× the normal annual activity
peak 11× stronger than normal
season ended 20 weeks early
2015
11
11× the normal annual activity
peak 31× stronger than normal
season ended 20 weeks early
2017
1
season began 8 weeks late
season ended 17 weeks early
2018
1
season ended 23 weeks early
2020
1
season began 33 weeks late
2021
1
season ended 29 weeks early
2023
4
3.9× the normal annual activity
peak 8.4× stronger than normal
season began 18 weeks late
2024
2
1.9× the normal annual activity
peak 5.6× stronger than normal
season began 27 weeks late
2026
46
45× the normal annual activity
peak 123× stronger than normal
season began 25 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson