Arenac

Next 7 daysLow9%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late March

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late March – mid May
Record year: 202511
Trend: 0%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +98%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	4	0
2002	4	0
2003	6	2
2004	3	0
2005	3	0
2006	3	0
2007	4	0
2008	3	0
2009	5	2
2010	4	0
2011	3	0
2012	5	5
2013	8	8
2014	2	2
2015	6	6
2016	4	4
2017	3	3
2018	2	8
2019	2	3
2020	7	14
2021	1	2
2022	3	14
2023	4	6
2024	8	13
2025	11	22
2026	1	6

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 12 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.2

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑

Sun7°

Mon10°

Tue13°

Wed14°

Thu15°

Fri14°

Sat16°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.2 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.1

likely 0.0–0.7 · usual 0.0–0.1

Season

Starts ~29 March
Peak ~3 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late March – mid September

Onset: late March
Peak: early May
End: mid September

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late March – mid May
35% of annual activity
early June – late June
10% of annual activity
early September – mid September
10% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: 0%/10Raw: +98%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 21.6× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.79).

Unusual years

14

2012
5
season ended 10 weeks late
2013
8
2.3× the normal annual activity
season began 3 weeks late
2014
2
season ended 20 weeks early
2016
4
season ended 9 weeks early
2017
3
season ended 14 weeks early
2018
2
season began 5 weeks late
season ended 15 weeks early
2019
2
season ended 22 weeks early
2020
7
2.0× the normal annual activity
season began 7 weeks late
2021
1
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 3 weeks early
season ended 25 weeks early
2022
3
season ended 11 weeks early
2023
4
season began 4 weeks late
2024
8
2.3× the normal annual activity
season began 6 weeks late
2025
11
3.1× the normal annual activity
season began 4 weeks early
2026
1
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 18 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson