Antrim

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late August – mid October
Record year: 20218
Trend: 0%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +83%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	4	3
2002	4	0
2003	3	3
2004	5	1
2005	5	2
2006	5	1
2007	4	0
2008	4	0
2009	4	0
2010	5	1
2011	4	0
2012	7	7
2013	7	7
2014	3	3
2015	5	5
2016	2	2
2017	2	2
2018	3	8
2019	5	12
2020	0	1
2021	8	22
2022	7	14
2023	4	8
2024	3	10
2025	5	11
2026	8	21

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Fires where there usually are none

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 1.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 1 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Vegetation is drying out↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
Hot weather (11 °C)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun6°

Mon9°

Tue12°

Wed14°

Thu13°

Fri12°

Sat16°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.1

likely 0.0–0.6 · usual 0.0–0.1

Season

Starts ~19 April
Peak ~6 September

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid April – early October

Onset: mid April
Peak: early September
End: early October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late August – mid October
38% of annual activity
early May – late May
15% of annual activity
mid July – late July
8% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: 0%/10Raw: +83%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 8.0× its earlier level (p 0.003). ODLAR's record has none (p 1.00).

Unusual years

11

2012
7
season began 6 weeks early
season ended 8 weeks late
2015
5
season ended 7 weeks early
2016
2
season began 18 weeks late
season ended 5 weeks early
2017
2
season began 9 weeks late
season ended 5 weeks early
2018
3
season began 8 weeks late
season ended 5 weeks early
2021
8
2.0× the normal annual activity
peak 3.7× stronger than normal
season began 6 weeks early
season ended 20 weeks early
2022
7
season began 9 weeks late
season ended 4 weeks early
2023
4
season began 12 weeks late
season ended 11 weeks early
2024
3
season began 22 weeks late
2025
5
season began 12 weeks late
2026
8
2.0× the normal annual activity
season began 14 weeks late
season ended 3 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson