Alpena

Next 7 daysModerate25%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late June – mid September
Record year: 201019
Trend: −30%/ 10significant · on raw data: +114%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	17	0
2002	19	0
2003	19	0
2004	19	0
2005	19	1
2006	18	0
2007	19	0
2008	19	0
2009	19	0
2010	19	0
2011	19	0
2012	8	8
2013	7	7
2014	3	3
2015	3	3
2016	6	6
2017	3	3
2018	2	7
2019	4	14
2020	8	25
2021	7	16
2022	15	35
2023	15	36
2024	13	19
2025	10	23
2026	188	764

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Fires where there usually are none

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 13
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 1 of 26

Next 7 days

Moderate

Full risk view

Moderate

Expected detections: ~0.8

Fires detected in recent days↑
This year is more active than normal↑
Vegetation is drying out↑

Sun5°

Mon9°

Tue13°

Wed14°

Thu15°

Fri12°

Sat15°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Moderate

~0.8 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~1.0 expected · usual 0.6

likely 0.0–2.1 · usual 0.0–0.8

Season

Starts ~19 April
Peak ~2 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid April – early October

Onset: mid April
Peak: early August
End: early October

Critical windows

late June – mid September
54% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −30%/10Raw: +114%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 161.1× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2012 (p < 0.001): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

10

2014
3
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season began 9 weeks late
2015
3
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season began 10 weeks late
season ended 9 weeks early
2016
6
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
season ended 5 weeks early
2017
3
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season began 15 weeks late
season ended 9 weeks late
2019
4
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 13 weeks late
season ended 7 weeks late
2021
7
season began 6 weeks early
2022
15
season ended 5 weeks early
2023
15
season ended 10 weeks late
2024
13
peak 1.8× stronger than normal
season began 7 weeks early
season ended 3 weeks late
2026
188
13× the normal annual activity
peak 21× stronger than normal
season began 16 weeks late
season ended 3 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson