Allegan

Next 7 daysLow8%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late March

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late March – mid May
Record year: 201336
Trend: +2%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +94%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	34	7
2002	22	1
2003	21	2
2004	18	3
2005	20	3
2006	19	4
2007	19	1
2008	23	7
2009	19	0
2010	20	3
2011	18	2
2012	30	30
2013	36	36
2014	33	33
2015	23	23
2016	19	19
2017	25	25
2018	14	25
2019	19	41
2020	16	29
2021	23	67
2022	22	35
2023	29	51
2024	25	45
2025	23	42
2026	14	51

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.4
Rank: 16 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.2

Fires detected in recent days↑
Vegetation is drying out↑
Hot weather (12 °C)↑

Sun8°

Mon10°

Tue12°

Wed13°

Thu14°

Fri14°

Sat17°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.2 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~1.0 expected · usual 0.8

likely 0.0–1.9 · usual 0.0–1.2

Season

Starts ~29 March
Peak ~19 April

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late March – early October

Onset: late March
Peak: mid April
End: early October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late March – mid May
32% of annual activity
late August – mid September
15% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +2%/10Raw: +94%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 11.9× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.63).

Unusual years

10

2001
34
1.5× the normal annual activity
peak 2.8× stronger than normal
2013
36
1.7× the normal annual activity
season began 11 weeks early
2014
33
1.5× the normal annual activity
season began 3 weeks late
2015
23
season began 3 weeks early
2018
14
only 0.6× the normal annual activity
season ended 8 weeks early
2020
16
season began 5 weeks late
2022
22
season began 3 weeks late
2023
29
peak 4.0× stronger than normal
season ended 14 weeks early
2024
25
season ended 7 weeks late
2026
14
only 0.6× the normal annual activity

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson