Alcona

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late February

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid April – mid May
Record year: 20159
Trend: −2%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +70%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	2	0
2002	2	0
2003	2	4
2004	2	0
2005	2	0
2006	2	1
2007	2	0
2008	2	0
2009	2	0
2010	2	0
2011	2	0
2012	1	1
2013	0	0
2014	0	0
2015	9	9
2016	1	1
2017	5	5
2018	8	10
2019	1	4
2020	0	0
2021	6	10
2022	1	2
2023	4	6
2024	4	11
2025	3	7
2026	3	5

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Fires where there usually are none

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 1.8
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 1 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Vegetation is drying out↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
A dry month (17 mm)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun5°

Mon9°

Tue13°

Wed14°

Thu15°

Fri12°

Sat15°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual 0.0

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.1 expected · usual 0.1

likely 0.0–0.8 · usual 0.0–0.2

Season

Starts ~22 February
Peak ~3 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late February – late August

Onset: late February
Peak: early May
End: late August

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid April – mid May
33% of annual activity
early March – late March
18% of annual activity
early August – late August
10% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −2%/10Raw: +70%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2015 to 13.8× its earlier level (p 0.004). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.63).

Unusual years

12

2012
1
season began 7 weeks late
season ended 23 weeks early
2015
9
5.3× the normal annual activity
peak 28× stronger than normal
season began 11 weeks late
season ended 8 weeks early
2016
1
season began 7 weeks early
season ended 37 weeks early
2017
5
peak 7.1× stronger than normal
season ended 8 weeks late
2018
8
4.7× the normal annual activity
peak 28× stronger than normal
season began 13 weeks late
season ended 17 weeks early
2019
1
season began 19 weeks late
season ended 11 weeks early
2021
6
3.5× the normal annual activity
peak 14× stronger than normal
season ended 9 weeks early
2022
1
season began 16 weeks late
season ended 14 weeks early
2023
4
peak 14× stronger than normal
season began 27 weeks late
2024
4
peak 11× stronger than normal
2025
3
peak 11× stronger than normal
season began 5 weeks late
season ended 25 weeks early
2026
3
peak 6.3× stronger than normal
season began 14 weeks late
season ended 8 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson