Paschim Medinipur

Next 7 daysExtreme85%

Fire season starts in about 3 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early February – late March
Record year: 20231,624
Trend: +58%/ 10significant · on raw data: +116%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	491	4
2002	344	5
2003	284	34
2004	396	55
2005	218	20
2006	341	51
2007	199	17
2008	241	24
2009	406	53
2010	562	92
2011	517	71
2012	260	219
2013	282	282
2014	463	463
2015	392	392
2016	452	452
2017	579	579
2018	927	1453
2019	448	832
2020	632	1314
2021	931	1907
2022	944	1848
2023	1624	3175
2024	1261	2562
2025	1170	2539
2026	1075	3983

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 12.3×

Raw data

› 124.0×

usual = 1×

This month: 49
Usual (median): 4.0
Rank: 1 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 124.0× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 12.3×.

Next 7 days

Extreme

Full risk view

Extreme

Expected detections: ~43.1

Fires detected in recent days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
This year is more active than normal↑
Rain expected (22 mm)↓

Sun30°

Mon30°

Tue30°

Wed28°

Thu25°

Fri24°

Sat27°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Extreme

~43 expected · usual 8.8

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~288 expected · usual 400

likely 113–813 · usual 36–1,214

Season

Starts ~30 November
Peak ~1 March

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late November – late March

Onset: late November
Peak: early March
End: late March

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

early February – late March
42% of annual activity
late November – early January
34% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +58%/10Raw: +116%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 25.5× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2016 (p 0.003): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

5

2001
491
season began 7 weeks early
season ended 6 weeks late
2002
344
season ended 7 weeks late
2023
1,624
3.6× the normal annual activity
2024
1,261
2.8× the normal annual activity
2026
1,075
season began 11 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson