Nadia

Next 7 daysLow10%

Fire season starts in about 3 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early February – mid April
Record year: 2023156
Trend: +36%/ 10significant · on raw data: +115%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	55	0
2002	50	1
2003	45	3
2004	43	2
2005	39	0
2006	43	1
2007	44	1
2008	53	3
2009	66	5
2010	65	6
2011	84	9
2012	72	68
2013	104	104
2014	136	136
2015	148	148
2016	76	76
2017	101	101
2018	35	52
2019	38	77
2020	91	213
2021	89	183
2022	42	84
2023	156	299
2024	92	208
2025	124	275
2026	166	476

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 1.6
Rank: 20 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.4

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
This year is quieter than normal↓

Sun29°

Mon29°

Tue29°

Wed27°

Thu27°

Fri22°

Sat27°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.4 expected · usual 1.0

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~15 expected · usual 21

likely 4.3–25 · usual 0.0–42

Season

Starts ~30 November
Peak ~29 March

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late November – early April

Onset: late November
Peak: late March
End: early April

Critical windows

early February – mid April
73% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +36%/10Raw: +115%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 51.3× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.09).

Unusual years

7

2015
148
season began 9 weeks late
2016
76
season ended 2 weeks early
2018
35
season ended 3 weeks early
2021
89
season began 13 weeks late
2024
92
season began 12 weeks late
2025
124
season began 13 weeks late
2026
166
season began 14 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson