Koch Bihar

Next 7 daysLow17%

Fire season starts in about 2 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late November – early January
Record year: 200238
Trend: −16%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +85%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	10	0
2002	38	4
2003	7	0
2004	32	5
2005	14	1
2006	8	0
2007	7	0
2008	15	2
2009	13	1
2010	18	2
2011	9	0
2012	10	9
2013	9	9
2014	9	9
2015	16	16
2016	12	12
2017	7	7
2018	8	12
2019	24	42
2020	6	10
2021	5	11
2022	5	8
2023	8	23
2024	15	39
2025	10	20
2026	10	38

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 9.5×

usual = 1×

This month: 1.9
Usual (median): 0.2
Rank: 1 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.5

Fires detected in recent days↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
This year is more active than normal↑

Sun27°

Mon27°

Tue27°

Wed27°

Thu28°

Fri28°

Sat27°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.5 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

Busier than usual

~20 expected · usual 11

likely 6.8–61 · usual 0.0–24

Season

Starts ~23 November
Peak ~4 January

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late November – late March

Onset: late November
Peak: early January
End: late March

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late November – early January
31% of annual activity
mid January – early February
18% of annual activity
early March – mid March
16% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −16%/10Raw: +85%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 11.9× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.44).

Unusual years

10

2002
38
4.0× the normal annual activity
peak 4.0× stronger than normal
season ended 6 weeks early
2004
32
3.4× the normal annual activity
peak 4.0× stronger than normal
season ended 4 weeks early
2005
14
season ended 4 weeks late
2008
15
season began 11 weeks early
2012
10
season ended 6 weeks early
2014
9
season ended 4 weeks late
2021
5
season ended 13 weeks early
2022
5
season began 9 weeks early
season ended 14 weeks late
2023
8
season began 10 weeks late
season ended 9 weeks late
2024
15
season ended 9 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson