Hugli

Next 7 daysLow18%

Fire season starts in about 1 week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early November – early February
Record year: 2025321
Trend: +59%/ 10significant · on raw data: +112%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	82	0
2002	62	0
2003	34	0
2004	37	0
2005	34	0
2006	45	1
2007	53	2
2008	46	1
2009	56	2
2010	67	3
2011	57	1
2012	21	15
2013	11	11
2014	42	42
2015	46	46
2016	52	52
2017	99	99
2018	159	358
2019	84	171
2020	211	460
2021	102	231
2022	166	358
2023	163	356
2024	205	450
2025	321	762
2026	84	325

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Above normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

2.0×

usual = 1×

This month: 2.8
Usual (median): 1.4
Rank: 6 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~3.9

Fires detected in recent days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
This year is more active than normal↑

Sun30°

Mon30°

Tue30°

Wed28°

Thu28°

Fri24°

Sat27°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~3.9 expected · usual 5.6

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~46 expected · usual 96

likely 24–184 · usual 11–267

Season

Starts ~16 November
Peak ~23 November

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid November – early April

Onset: mid November
Peak: late November
End: early April

Critical windows

early November – early February
75% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +59%/10Raw: +112%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2014 to 101.9× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2017 (p < 0.001): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

9

2012
21
season began 5 weeks late
2013
11
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
2018
159
season ended 12 weeks early
2019
84
season ended 12 weeks early
2020
211
3.7× the normal annual activity
season ended 14 weeks early
2022
166
season ended 16 weeks early
2024
205
3.6× the normal annual activity
2025
321
5.6× the normal annual activity
peak 8.9× stronger than normal
2026
84
season began 3 weeks early
season ended 9 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson