Haora

Next 7 daysLow3%

Fire season starts in about 4 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid December – mid March
Record year: 202396
Trend: +19%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +113%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	43	0
2002	50	1
2003	34	1
2004	28	0
2005	27	0
2006	28	0
2007	28	0
2008	28	0
2009	38	2
2010	37	1
2011	51	4
2012	23	16
2013	17	17
2014	27	27
2015	21	21
2016	17	17
2017	36	36
2018	51	90
2019	23	51
2020	58	119
2021	75	154
2022	32	78
2023	96	189
2024	70	149
2025	58	133
2026	56	191

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.6
Rank: 16 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

An active part of the fire season↑
Dry air (59%)↑
This year is quieter than normal↓

Sun30°

Mon30°

Tue30°

Wed28°

Thu26°

Fri25°

Sat28°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.4

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~11 expected · usual 21

likely 3.2–36 · usual 0.0–47

Season

Starts ~7 December
Peak ~4 January

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early December – early May

Onset: early December
Peak: early January
End: early May

Critical windows

mid December – mid March
56% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +19%/10Raw: +113%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 39.9× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.06).

Unusual years

12

2012
23
season began 3 weeks late
season ended 6 weeks early
2013
17
season ended 5 weeks early
2015
21
season began 4 weeks late
season ended 3 weeks late
2017
36
season ended 3 weeks late
2018
51
season ended 8 weeks early
2019
23
season began 4 weeks late
2020
58
season ended 4 weeks early
2021
75
season ended 3 weeks early
2022
32
season ended 7 weeks early
2023
96
season began 3 weeks late
2024
70
season began 5 weeks late
2026
56
season began 5 weeks late
season ended 9 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson