Tbilisi

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid February

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid July – early September
Record year: 200328
Trend: −13%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +101%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	20	1
2002	14	0
2003	28	5
2004	17	1
2005	16	1
2006	14	0
2007	20	2
2008	14	2
2009	13	0
2010	15	0
2011	24	4
2012	23	23
2013	18	18
2014	21	21
2015	17	17
2016	18	18
2017	14	14
2018	5	10
2019	20	27
2020	9	19
2021	13	25
2022	22	48
2023	13	24
2024	8	26
2025	17	45
2026	8	11

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 13 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

No rain expected in the coming days↑
Strong wind (6.7 m/s)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sat20°

Sun17°

Mon12°

Tue9°

Wed13°

Thu14°

Fri15°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~0.4 expected · usual 2.7

likely 0.0–3.6 · usual 0.0–1.8

Season

Starts ~15 February
Peak ~23 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid February – mid September

Onset: mid February
Peak: late August
End: mid September

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid July – early September
29% of annual activity
mid June – late June
9% of annual activity
early May – mid May
7% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −13%/10Raw: +101%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 16.4× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.20).

Unusual years

7

2015
17
season began 10 weeks late
2018
5
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season ended 7 weeks early
2020
9
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
2021
13
season began 11 weeks early
season ended 9 weeks early
2023
13
season ended 13 weeks early
2024
8
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
season ended 7 weeks late
2026
8
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
season ended 11 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson