Racha-Lechkhumi and Kvemo Svaneti

Next 7 daysLow1%

Peak fire period now

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid October – late November
Record year: 201960
Trend: −14%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +44%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	14	0
2002	9	1
2003	6	0
2004	20	4
2005	7	1
2006	9	3
2007	5	0
2008	13	3
2009	12	3
2010	32	8
2011	4	0
2012	9	9
2013	6	6
2014	9	9
2015	18	18
2016	10	10
2017	6	6
2018	2	4
2019	60	122
2020	21	37
2021	12	28
2022	3	7
2023	2	4
2024	0	2
2025	22	57
2026	0	1

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 13 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.2

An active part of the fire season↑
Rain expected (43 mm)↓

Sat6°

Sun4°

Mon0°

Tue2°

Wed1°

Thu2°

Fri2°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 24% of past years at this time

Year to date0

#25 of 26 yearsNormal: 6

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.2 expected · usual 2.9

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~1.5 expected · usual 4.4

likely 0.0–3.6 · usual 0.0–13

Season

Ends ~5 April
Peak ~16 November

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid October – early April

Onset: mid October
Peak: mid November
End: early April

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid October – late November
49% of annual activity
early March – late March
22% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −14%/10Raw: +44%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 10.9× its earlier level (p 0.003). ODLAR's record has none (p 1.00).

Unusual years

10

2010
32
peak 6.6× stronger than normal
season ended 17 weeks early
2013
6
season ended 19 weeks early
2015
18
season began 15 weeks late
2016
10
season began 16 weeks late
2017
6
season began 17 weeks late
2018
2
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season began 22 weeks late
2019
60
6.6× the normal annual activity
peak 14× stronger than normal
season ended 19 weeks early
2020
21
peak 5.0× stronger than normal
season began 17 weeks late
2023
2
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season began 23 weeks late
2025
22
peak 4.8× stronger than normal
season ended 19 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Racha-Lechkhumi and Kvemo Svaneti

Next 7 daysLow1%

Peak fire period now

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid October – late November
Record year: 201960
Trend: −14%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +44%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	14	0
2002	9	1
2003	6	0
2004	20	4
2005	7	1
2006	9	3
2007	5	0
2008	13	3
2009	12	3
2010	32	8
2011	4	0
2012	9	9
2013	6	6
2014	9	9
2015	18	18
2016	10	10
2017	6	6
2018	2	4
2019	60	122
2020	21	37
2021	12	28
2022	3	7
2023	2	4
2024	0	2
2025	22	57
2026	0	1

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 13 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.2

An active part of the fire season↑
Rain expected (43 mm)↓

Sat6°

Sun4°

Mon0°

Tue2°

Wed1°

Thu2°

Fri2°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 24% of past years at this time

Year to date0

#25 of 26 yearsNormal: 6

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.2 expected · usual 2.9

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~1.5 expected · usual 4.4

likely 0.0–3.6 · usual 0.0–13

Season

Ends ~5 April
Peak ~16 November

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid October – early April

Onset: mid October
Peak: mid November
End: early April

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid October – late November
49% of annual activity
early March – late March
22% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −14%/10Raw: +44%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 10.9× its earlier level (p 0.003). ODLAR's record has none (p 1.00).

Unusual years

10

2010
32
peak 6.6× stronger than normal
season ended 17 weeks early
2013
6
season ended 19 weeks early
2015
18
season began 15 weeks late
2016
10
season began 16 weeks late
2017
6
season began 17 weeks late
2018
2
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season began 22 weeks late
2019
60
6.6× the normal annual activity
peak 14× stronger than normal
season ended 19 weeks early
2020
21
peak 5.0× stronger than normal
season began 17 weeks late
2023
2
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season began 23 weeks late
2025
22
peak 4.8× stronger than normal
season ended 19 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson