Kakheti

Next 7 daysModerate25%

Fire season: about 17 weeks left · 0.0× the usual for this week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early July – early September
Record year: 20012,061
Trend: −2%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +83%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	2061	257
2002	729	121
2003	387	100
2004	1098	321
2005	752	226
2006	823	225
2007	607	186
2008	831	242
2009	351	90
2010	930	292
2011	739	207
2012	895	797
2013	450	450
2014	431	431
2015	987	987
2016	1021	1021
2017	1122	1122
2018	963	1767
2019	990	1842
2020	721	1478
2021	732	1465
2022	627	1368
2023	308	574
2024	580	1866
2025	1872	5509
2026	992	2865

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.12×

Raw data

1.0×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.9
Usual (median): 7.3
Rank: 26 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 1.0× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 0.12×.

Next 7 days

Moderate

Full risk view

Moderate

Expected detections: ~2.6

Fires detected in recent days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
This year is more active than normal↑

Sat19°

Sun19°

Mon11°

Tue10°

Wed13°

Thu15°

Fri18°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Moderate

~2.6 expected · usual 4.0

Next 3 months

About usual

~33 expected · usual 35

likely 5.1–74 · usual 0.0–86

Season

Ends ~8 March
Peak ~26 July

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid July – early March

Onset: mid July
Peak: late July
End: early March

Critical windows

early July – early September
62% of annual activity
early March – mid March
9% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −2%/10Raw: +83%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 7.2× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 1.00).

Unusual years

9

2001
2,061
2.7× the normal annual activity
peak 4.1× stronger than normal
season ended 21 weeks early
2010
930
season ended 16 weeks early
2012
895
season began 4 weeks late
2015
987
season ended 23 weeks early
2018
963
season ended 22 weeks early
2019
990
season began 3 weeks early
2023
308
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
2025
1,872
2.5× the normal annual activity
peak 3.8× stronger than normal
2026
992
season ended 25 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson