Abkhazia

Next 7 daysLow7%

Fire season: about 21 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid January – early April
Record year: 20191,240
Trend: −5%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +77%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	833	41
2002	444	48
2003	483	156
2004	711	232
2005	447	132
2006	302	86
2007	517	166
2008	465	134
2009	347	100
2010	631	160
2011	266	73
2012	462	459
2013	465	465
2014	650	650
2015	451	451
2016	562	562
2017	662	662
2018	182	270
2019	1240	2386
2020	543	1124
2021	416	806
2022	197	470
2023	269	545
2024	430	1168
2025	676	1977
2026	75	331

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 1.5
Rank: 21 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~1.0

An active part of the fire season↑
Dry air (36%)↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
Rain expected (136 mm)↓

Sat8°

Sun6°

Mon3°

Tue6°

Wed4°

Thu4°

Fri5°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~1.0 expected · usual 18

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~40 expected · usual 92

likely 1.7–239 · usual 0.0–183

Season

Ends ~5 April
Peak ~1 March

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early November – early April

Onset: early November
Peak: early March
End: early April

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid January – early April
68% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −5%/10Raw: +77%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 7.1× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.98).

Unusual years

5

2001
833
season ended 8 weeks early
2012
462
season began 10 weeks late
2018
182
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
2019
1,240
2.7× the normal annual activity
peak 3.6× stronger than normal
season began 9 weeks early
2026
75
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season began 17 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson