Azerbaijan

Fire season: about 15 weeks left · 0.2× the usual for this week

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.15×

Raw data

0.47×

usual = 1×

This month: 7.2
Usual (median): 48
Rank: 24 of 26

Key numbers

Annual mean: 5,163
Peak period: late June – mid September
Record year: 2015; 8,290
Trend: −26% / 10; on raw data: +82%

Burning calendar, week by week (harmonized detections)

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −26%/10Raw: +82%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 5.3× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.13).

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~8.3 expected · usual 52

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~227 expected · usual 487

likely 31–1,127 · usual 0.0–1,017

Season

Ends ~22 February
Peak ~19 July

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

About this report

Counts are NASA FIRMS active-fire detections (MODIS since 2000, VIIRS since 2012) put on one scale (harmonized), so years before and after 2012 can be compared.

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires. Clouds and smoke hide some fires; hatched weeks had no satellite observation.

Weather: Open-Meteo forecast and NASA POWER history. Forecast reliability is from tests on past years the models never saw.

Source: ODLAR, https://odlar.app/en/region/az

About this report

Counts are NASA FIRMS active-fire detections (MODIS since 2000, VIIRS since 2012) put on one scale (harmonized), so years before and after 2012 can be compared.

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires. Clouds and smoke hide some fires; hatched weeks had no satellite observation.

Weather: Open-Meteo forecast and NASA POWER history. Forecast reliability is from tests on past years the models never saw.

Source: ODLAR, https://odlar.app/en/region/az