Yardymli District

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid June

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late June – early September
Record year: 200116
Trend: −8%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +42%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	16	3
2002	5	1
2003	2	0
2004	3	0
2005	2	0
2006	11	5
2007	2	0
2008	7	2
2009	2	0
2010	2	0
2011	2	0
2012	0	0
2013	3	3
2014	0	0
2015	4	4
2016	6	6
2017	0	0
2018	13	27
2019	12	29
2020	2	3
2021	2	14
2022	2	3
2023	1	1
2024	4	8
2025	3	11
2026	0	9

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 13 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Dry air (38%)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sat18°

Sun19°

Mon7°

Tue3°

Wed12°

Thu14°

Fri16°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.0

likely 0.0–0.2 · usual 0.0–0.1

Season

Starts ~14 June
Peak ~16 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid June – early September

Onset: mid June
Peak: mid August
End: early September

Critical windows

late June – early September
80% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −8%/10Raw: +42%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2015 to 9.6× its earlier level (p 0.01). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.92).

Unusual years

10

2001
16
7.3× the normal annual activity
2005
2
season began 10 weeks early
2006
11
5.1× the normal annual activity
2009
2
season began 10 weeks early
2011
2
season began 12 weeks early
2018
13
5.9× the normal annual activity
season began 12 weeks early
2019
12
5.5× the normal annual activity
2020
2
season ended 9 weeks early
2024
4
season began 11 weeks late
2025
3
season began 13 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson