Tartar District

Next 7 daysLow3%

Fire season: about 6 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late June – late August
Record year: 2020514
Trend: −27%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +41%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	152	16
2002	319	56
2003	285	66
2004	338	93
2005	226	64
2006	212	65
2007	100	22
2008	124	31
2009	111	26
2010	440	120
2011	287	78
2012	113	109
2013	114	114
2014	41	41
2015	315	315
2016	107	107
2017	163	163
2018	282	594
2019	294	586
2020	514	954
2021	138	323
2022	49	114
2023	32	50
2024	11	39
2025	151	441
2026	39	164

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.4
Rank: 18 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.3

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
Rain expected (30 mm)↓

Sat14°

Sun14°

Mon8°

Tue3°

Wed10°

Thu13°

Fri14°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.3 expected · usual 6.5

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~5.1 expected · usual 19

likely 1.0–25 · usual 0.0–29

Season

Ends ~21 December
Peak ~19 July

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late June – mid December

Onset: late June
Peak: mid July
End: mid December

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late June – late August
60% of annual activity
late October – early November
9% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −27%/10Raw: +41%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2010 to 5.3× its earlier level (p 0.02). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.33).

Unusual years

6

2006
212
season began 4 weeks early
2008
124
season began 3 weeks late
2012
113
season began 3 weeks late
2015
315
season began 5 weeks early
2019
294
season began 4 weeks early
2020
514
peak 5.2× stronger than normal
season began 14 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson