Sumqayit City

Next 7 daysLow6%

Fire season: about 1 week left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late June – late August
Record year: 2019183
Trend: −10%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +96%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	35	1
2002	34	0
2003	32	0
2004	35	0
2005	32	0
2006	33	0
2007	34	1
2008	31	0
2009	32	0
2010	33	0
2011	32	0
2012	12	11
2013	15	15
2014	20	20
2015	4	4
2016	14	14
2017	31	31
2018	28	61
2019	183	254
2020	58	119
2021	43	62
2022	26	55
2023	29	64
2024	25	71
2025	21	65
2026	10	38

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

About normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

1.2×

usual = 1×

This month: 1.0
Usual (median): 0.9
Rank: 8 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.4

Fires detected in recent days↑
Strong wind (11.6 m/s)↑
Hot weather (16 °C)↑

Sat21°

Sun18°

Mon10°

Tue12°

Wed16°

Thu19°

Fri17°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.4 expected · usual 0.3

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~3.8 expected · usual 6.2

likely 1.2–25 · usual 0.0–16

Season

Ends ~16 November
Peak ~19 July

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early March – mid November

Onset: early March
Peak: mid July
End: mid November

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late June – late August
35% of annual activity
late April – early May
5% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −10%/10Raw: +96%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 332.4× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.13).

Unusual years

12

2012
12
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
2013
15
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
season began 10 weeks late
2014
20
only 0.6× the normal annual activity
season ended 6 weeks late
2016
14
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
season began 10 weeks late
season ended 10 weeks early
2017
31
peak 2.6× stronger than normal
season began 8 weeks late
season ended 12 weeks early
2018
28
season ended 7 weeks late
2019
183
5.8× the normal annual activity
peak 7.9× stronger than normal
2020
58
1.8× the normal annual activity
peak 2.8× stronger than normal
season began 7 weeks early
season ended 7 weeks late
2021
43
peak 2.6× stronger than normal
season ended 9 weeks early
2022
26
peak 2.4× stronger than normal
season began 6 weeks late
2025
21
only 0.7× the normal annual activity
2026
10
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 8 weeks late
season ended 7 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson