Siazan District

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid May

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late May – late August
Record year: 200251
Trend: −10%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +87%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	34	3
2002	51	18
2003	26	7
2004	30	10
2005	33	14
2006	43	12
2007	40	12
2008	20	0
2009	21	1
2010	26	5
2011	44	18
2012	9	9
2013	36	36
2014	25	25
2015	23	23
2016	20	20
2017	24	24
2018	29	46
2019	45	89
2020	34	46
2021	35	58
2022	38	73
2023	33	52
2024	13	57
2025	22	49
2026	13	54

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Fires where there usually are none

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 2.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 1 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Fires detected in recent days↑
Strong wind (5.7 m/s)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sat17°

Sun17°

Mon8°

Tue10°

Wed12°

Thu14°

Fri16°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.8 expected · usual 0.3

likely 0.0–3.2 · usual 0.0–0.7

Season

Starts ~17 May
Peak ~12 July

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid May – late August

Onset: mid May
Peak: mid July
End: late August

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late May – late August
75% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −10%/10Raw: +87%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 5.1× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.48).

Unusual years

9

2003
26
season ended 6 weeks late
2005
33
season began 10 weeks early
2012
9
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season ended 7 weeks early
2014
25
season began 9 weeks early
2020
34
season began 6 weeks early
2021
35
season ended 8 weeks early
2024
13
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
2025
22
season began 6 weeks early
2026
13
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
season began 14 weeks early
season ended 9 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson