Salyan District

Next 7 daysLow2%

Fire season: about 18 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late January – late March
Record year: 202086
Trend: +11%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +87%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	34	1
2002	40	4
2003	35	6
2004	34	5
2005	26	3
2006	26	2
2007	32	4
2008	28	4
2009	38	10
2010	34	6
2011	53	15
2012	26	24
2013	47	47
2014	24	24
2015	24	24
2016	47	47
2017	41	41
2018	14	29
2019	28	68
2020	86	163
2021	17	48
2022	72	122
2023	31	73
2024	50	158
2025	64	173
2026	52	145

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.2
Rank: 15 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Strong wind (5.3 m/s)↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sat21°

Sun23°

Mon12°

Tue11°

Wed13°

Thu16°

Fri19°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~3.1 expected · usual 1.8

likely 0.0–11 · usual 0.0–4.5

Season

Ends ~15 March
Peak ~8 February

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early July – mid March

Onset: early July
Peak: early February
End: mid March

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late January – late March
46% of annual activity
early August – late August
11% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +11%/10Raw: +87%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 13.6× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.68).

Unusual years

10

2003
35
season ended 3 weeks early
2014
24
season began 25 weeks late
2015
24
season ended 6 weeks early
2018
14
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
2020
86
2.5× the normal annual activity
peak 6.5× stronger than normal
season ended 4 weeks early
2021
17
season ended 3 weeks late
2022
72
season ended 3 weeks late
2024
50
season ended 3 weeks early
2025
64
peak 3.6× stronger than normal
season ended 3 weeks late
2026
52
season ended 3 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson