Qabala District

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late July

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early July – late September
Record year: 2001299
Trend: −25%/ 10significant · on raw data: +11%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	299	64
2002	39	15
2003	29	11
2004	78	27
2005	63	15
2006	17	3
2007	68	18
2008	95	26
2009	33	9
2010	70	20
2011	74	15
2012	10	10
2013	51	51
2014	23	23
2015	70	70
2016	23	23
2017	226	226
2018	8	24
2019	50	85
2020	14	32
2021	298	601
2022	63	124
2023	4	7
2024	2	10
2025	3	12
2026	0	4

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.1
Rank: 16 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Outside the fire season↓

Sat17°

Sun19°

Mon11°

Tue7°

Wed9°

Thu14°

Fri18°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~0.0 expected · usual 3.1

likely 0.0–0.0 · usual 0.0–1.6

Season

Starts ~26 July
Peak ~23 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late July – early October

Onset: late July
Peak: late August
End: early October

Critical windows

early July – late September
89% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −25%/10Raw: +11%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.22). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.29).

Unusual years

4

2001
299
peak 8.6× stronger than normal
2012
10
season began 33 weeks late
2017
226
peak 8.4× stronger than normal
2021
298
peak 9.3× stronger than normal

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson