Lankaran District

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts early July

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early July – late September
Record year: 2014160
Trend: −20%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +62%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	105	14
2002	68	10
2003	31	2
2004	46	5
2005	48	8
2006	33	5
2007	83	18
2008	23	1
2009	59	10
2010	35	3
2011	38	3
2012	28	28
2013	37	37
2014	160	160
2015	85	85
2016	16	16
2017	30	30
2018	19	33
2019	73	136
2020	39	74
2021	145	260
2022	29	48
2023	18	33
2024	17	63
2025	27	75
2026	21	83

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 13 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Outside the fire season↓

Sat19°

Sun19°

Mon14°

Tue11°

Wed13°

Thu17°

Fri21°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~4.2 expected · usual 3.2

likely 0.3–13 · usual 0.0–9.3

Season

Starts ~5 July
Peak ~9 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early July – late October

Onset: early July
Peak: early August
End: late October

Critical windows

early July – late September
81% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −20%/10Raw: +62%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 10.7× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.24).

Unusual years

7

2001
105
peak 6.1× stronger than normal
2012
28
season began 5 weeks late
2014
160
4.3× the normal annual activity
peak 7.3× stronger than normal
2015
85
peak 4.9× stronger than normal
season began 6 weeks late
2019
73
peak 3.6× stronger than normal
season began 5 weeks late
2021
145
peak 9.0× stronger than normal
season began 5 weeks late
2024
17
season began 5 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson