Lachin District

Next 7 daysLow2%

Peak fire period now

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early November – early December
Record year: 2022619
Trend: −16%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +38%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	77	9
2002	317	62
2003	214	39
2004	286	87
2005	197	48
2006	173	65
2007	51	10
2008	396	70
2009	44	9
2010	617	116
2011	27	4
2012	71	70
2013	156	156
2014	374	374
2015	37	37
2016	25	25
2017	162	162
2018	53	94
2019	99	205
2020	40	80
2021	197	374
2022	619	1265
2023	39	70
2024	14	23
2025	270	811
2026	2	8

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 1.2
Rank: 17 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.2

An active part of the fire season↑
This year is quieter than normal↓

Sat12°

Sun15°

Mon6°

Tue2°

Wed9°

Thu9°

Fri12°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.2 expected · usual 14

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~12 expected · usual 102

likely 0.0–131 · usual 0.0–118

Season

Ends ~15 February
Peak ~23 November

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid August – mid February

Onset: mid August
Peak: late November
End: mid February

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

early November – early December
33% of annual activity
early August – early September
21% of annual activity
late September – early October
10% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −16%/10Raw: +38%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.07). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.36).

Unusual years

10

2008
396
season began 15 weeks late
2009
44
season began 9 weeks late
2010
617
season began 12 weeks late
2011
27
season began 7 weeks late
2012
71
season began 12 weeks late
2016
25
season ended 26 weeks early
2020
40
season began 10 weeks late
2021
197
season began 7 weeks early
season ended 18 weeks early
2022
619
season ended 20 weeks early
2025
270
season began 14 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson