Khachmaz District

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts early March

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late July – late September
Record year: 201390
Trend: −25%/ 10significant · on raw data: +80%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	55	11
2002	69	24
2003	42	10
2004	64	20
2005	23	3
2006	43	9
2007	34	10
2008	33	8
2009	21	3
2010	41	13
2011	38	9
2012	30	30
2013	90	90
2014	50	50
2015	48	48
2016	46	46
2017	47	47
2018	42	76
2019	28	68
2020	45	92
2021	25	63
2022	29	63
2023	18	33
2024	16	64
2025	36	114
2026	16	35

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 4.6×

usual = 1×

This month: 1.2
Usual (median): 0.2
Rank: 2 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Hot weather (14 °C)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sat19°

Sun16°

Mon9°

Tue11°

Wed14°

Thu14°

Fri17°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~1.2 expected · usual 0.6

likely 0.0–4.6 · usual 0.0–1.4

Season

Starts ~8 March
Peak ~16 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early March – mid September

Onset: early March
Peak: mid August
End: mid September

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late July – late September
53% of annual activity
mid March – late March
10% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −25%/10Raw: +80%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 5.3× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.15).

Unusual years

10

2007
34
season ended 3 weeks late
2013
90
2.2× the normal annual activity
season began 14 weeks late
2014
50
season ended 4 weeks early
2015
48
season ended 3 weeks early
2019
28
season began 6 weeks early
season ended 4 weeks late
2021
25
season ended 8 weeks early
2022
29
season ended 3 weeks early
2023
18
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
2024
16
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
season ended 3 weeks early
2026
16
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
season ended 4 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson