Kalbajar District

Next 7 daysLow1%

Peak fire period now · 0.0× the usual for this week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late October – mid December
Record year: 20101,051
Trend: −15%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +43%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	56	4
2002	268	55
2003	58	19
2004	234	53
2005	267	67
2006	154	35
2007	59	11
2008	279	65
2009	79	15
2010	1051	193
2011	56	16
2012	287	285
2013	165	165
2014	144	144
2015	81	81
2016	24	24
2017	727	727
2018	43	108
2019	159	346
2020	113	200
2021	50	94
2022	148	300
2023	34	59
2024	1	10
2025	222	614
2026	2	5

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

Raw data

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 3.0
Rank: 19 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.2

An active part of the fire season↑
Rain expected (27 mm)↓

Sat11°

Sun11°

Mon5°

Tue2°

Wed7°

Thu8°

Fri8°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.2 expected · usual 16

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~21 expected · usual 97

likely 0.0–114 · usual 0.0–204

Season

Ends ~22 March
Peak ~8 November

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid September – late March

Onset: mid September
Peak: early November
End: late March

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late October – mid December
49% of annual activity
early September – mid September
13% of annual activity
late March – late March
7% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −15%/10Raw: +43%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 4.7× its earlier level (p 0.03). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.40).

Unusual years

8

2002
268
season ended 17 weeks early
2010
1,051
7.3× the normal annual activity
season ended 13 weeks early
2011
56
season began 12 weeks early
2013
165
season began 16 weeks late
2017
727
season ended 22 weeks early
2019
159
season ended 15 weeks early
2022
148
season ended 13 weeks early
2025
222
season ended 18 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson