Jabrayil District

Next 7 daysLow3%

Fire season: about 9 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early June – late August
Record year: 2015817
Trend: −30%/ 10significant · on raw data: +33%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	375	48
2002	209	52
2003	388	115
2004	353	97
2005	191	48
2006	543	151
2007	255	75
2008	162	51
2009	50	11
2010	425	130
2011	124	40
2012	265	260
2013	273	273
2014	142	142
2015	817	817
2016	107	107
2017	240	240
2018	181	390
2019	817	1455
2020	43	95
2021	506	1033
2022	77	183
2023	73	139
2024	68	170
2025	86	249
2026	91	212

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.2
Rank: 16 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.2

Fires detected in recent days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
Hot weather (17 °C)↑
This year is quieter than normal↓

Sat22°

Sun23°

Mon12°

Tue10°

Wed13°

Thu19°

Fri19°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.2 expected · usual 0.5

Next 3 months

About usual

~9.1 expected · usual 12

likely 1.0–29 · usual 0.0–37

Season

Ends ~11 January
Peak ~2 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early June – mid January

Onset: early June
Peak: early August
End: mid January

Critical windows

early June – late August
73% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −30%/10Raw: +33%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 5.3× its earlier level (p 0.002). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.26).

Unusual years

9

2001
375
season ended 23 weeks early
2003
388
season ended 21 weeks early
2010
425
season ended 19 weeks early
2012
265
season began 6 weeks late
2015
817
season ended 18 weeks early
2017
240
season ended 19 weeks early
2019
817
peak 7.4× stronger than normal
season ended 23 weeks early
2021
506
season ended 24 weeks early
2023
73
season began 21 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson