Bilasuvar District

Next 7 daysLow3%

Fire season: about 14 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late June – early September
Record year: 2009104
Trend: −24%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +66%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	68	16
2002	54	15
2003	41	14
2004	56	18
2005	17	3
2006	27	6
2007	20	3
2008	19	5
2009	104	38
2010	31	9
2011	34	11
2012	46	45
2013	52	52
2014	10	10
2015	51	51
2016	71	71
2017	29	29
2018	20	47
2019	27	56
2020	34	67
2021	26	52
2022	20	38
2023	27	65
2024	10	40
2025	30	69
2026	31	94

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.2
Rank: 16 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Fires detected in recent days↑
Humid air (71%)↓

Sat21°

Sun24°

Mon14°

Tue11°

Wed13°

Thu16°

Fri20°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 26% of past years at this time

Year to date31

#12 of 26 yearsNormal: 27

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.2

Next 3 months

About usual

~4.0 expected · usual 3.9

likely 0.0–17 · usual 0.0–11

Season

Ends ~15 February
Peak ~5 July

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late June – mid February

Onset: late June
Peak: early July
End: mid February

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late June – early September
53% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −24%/10Raw: +66%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 3.9× its earlier level (p 0.002). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.31).

Unusual years

8

2001
68
peak 3.2× stronger than normal
2006
27
season ended 13 weeks early
2009
104
3.5× the normal annual activity
peak 4.1× stronger than normal
season ended 14 weeks early
2010
31
season ended 9 weeks early
2015
51
season ended 18 weeks early
2016
71
peak 3.9× stronger than normal
season ended 20 weeks early
2020
34
peak 3.0× stronger than normal
season began 28 weeks late
2024
10
season began 6 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Bilasuvar District

Next 7 daysLow3%

Fire season: about 14 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late June – early September
Record year: 2009104
Trend: −24%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +66%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	68	16
2002	54	15
2003	41	14
2004	56	18
2005	17	3
2006	27	6
2007	20	3
2008	19	5
2009	104	38
2010	31	9
2011	34	11
2012	46	45
2013	52	52
2014	10	10
2015	51	51
2016	71	71
2017	29	29
2018	20	47
2019	27	56
2020	34	67
2021	26	52
2022	20	38
2023	27	65
2024	10	40
2025	30	69
2026	31	94

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.2
Rank: 16 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Fires detected in recent days↑
Humid air (71%)↓

Sat21°

Sun24°

Mon14°

Tue11°

Wed13°

Thu16°

Fri20°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 26% of past years at this time

Year to date31

#12 of 26 yearsNormal: 27

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.2

Next 3 months

About usual

~4.0 expected · usual 3.9

likely 0.0–17 · usual 0.0–11

Season

Ends ~15 February
Peak ~5 July

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late June – mid February

Onset: late June
Peak: early July
End: mid February

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late June – early September
53% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −24%/10Raw: +66%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 3.9× its earlier level (p 0.002). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.31).

Unusual years

8

2001
68
peak 3.2× stronger than normal
2006
27
season ended 13 weeks early
2009
104
3.5× the normal annual activity
peak 4.1× stronger than normal
season ended 14 weeks early
2010
31
season ended 9 weeks early
2015
51
season ended 18 weeks early
2016
71
peak 3.9× stronger than normal
season ended 20 weeks early
2020
34
peak 3.0× stronger than normal
season began 28 weeks late
2024
10
season began 6 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson