Barda District

Next 7 daysLow2%

Fire season: about 16 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid June – late July
Record year: 2002143
Trend: −5%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +106%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	50	1
2002	143	38
2003	89	20
2004	101	21
2005	75	12
2006	60	7
2007	64	12
2008	50	7
2009	71	13
2010	53	5
2011	58	7
2012	29	23
2013	77	77
2014	44	44
2015	51	51
2016	53	53
2017	42	42
2018	56	102
2019	72	140
2020	100	171
2021	55	109
2022	74	129
2023	78	167
2024	40	145
2025	88	234
2026	64	224

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 13 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Strong wind (4.7 m/s)↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
Hot weather (18 °C)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sat22°

Sun23°

Mon14°

Tue12°

Wed15°

Thu17°

Fri20°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 26% of past years at this time

Year to date64

#12 of 26 yearsNormal: 58

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~6.7 expected · usual 8.2

likely 1.0–35 · usual 0.0–19

Season

Ends ~1 March
Peak ~28 June

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late June – early March

Onset: late June
Peak: late June
End: early March

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid June – late July
45% of annual activity
late January – early March
19% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −5%/10Raw: +106%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 8.1× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.53).

Unusual years

6

2002
143
2.4× the normal annual activity
peak 2.9× stronger than normal
2010
53
season ended 9 weeks early
2012
29
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
2013
77
season ended 6 weeks early
2015
51
season ended 23 weeks early
2018
56
season ended 13 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Barda District

Next 7 daysLow2%

Fire season: about 16 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid June – late July
Record year: 2002143
Trend: −5%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +106%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	50	1
2002	143	38
2003	89	20
2004	101	21
2005	75	12
2006	60	7
2007	64	12
2008	50	7
2009	71	13
2010	53	5
2011	58	7
2012	29	23
2013	77	77
2014	44	44
2015	51	51
2016	53	53
2017	42	42
2018	56	102
2019	72	140
2020	100	171
2021	55	109
2022	74	129
2023	78	167
2024	40	145
2025	88	234
2026	64	224

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 13 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Strong wind (4.7 m/s)↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
Hot weather (18 °C)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sat22°

Sun23°

Mon14°

Tue12°

Wed15°

Thu17°

Fri20°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 26% of past years at this time

Year to date64

#12 of 26 yearsNormal: 58

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~6.7 expected · usual 8.2

likely 1.0–35 · usual 0.0–19

Season

Ends ~1 March
Peak ~28 June

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late June – early March

Onset: late June
Peak: late June
End: early March

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid June – late July
45% of annual activity
late January – early March
19% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −5%/10Raw: +106%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 8.1× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.53).

Unusual years

6

2002
143
2.4× the normal annual activity
peak 2.9× stronger than normal
2010
53
season ended 9 weeks early
2012
29
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
2013
77
season ended 6 weeks early
2015
51
season ended 23 weeks early
2018
56
season ended 13 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson