Baku City

Next 7 daysModerate27%

Fire season: last week · 0.0× the usual for this week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late May – mid July
Record year: 2018196
Trend: 0%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +115%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	75	1
2002	74	1
2003	72	1
2004	84	7
2005	72	2
2006	76	4
2007	84	9
2008	72	1
2009	66	3
2010	95	10
2011	108	24
2012	39	37
2013	48	48
2014	64	64
2015	44	44
2016	38	38
2017	51	51
2018	196	316
2019	83	174
2020	86	183
2021	96	196
2022	114	269
2023	72	169
2024	74	331
2025	49	230
2026	77	311

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.50×

Raw data

3.0×

usual = 1×

This month: 1.0
Usual (median): 2.0
Rank: 17 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 3.0× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 0.50×.

Next 7 days

Moderate

Full risk view

Moderate

Expected detections: ~1.2

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
Strong wind (9.9 m/s)↑
Humid air (61%)↓

Sat21°

Sun21°

Mon12°

Tue11°

Wed13°

Thu17°

Fri19°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 14% of past years at this time

Year to date77

#8 of 26 yearsNormal: 67

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Moderate

~1.2 expected · usual 0.8

Next 3 months

About usual

~8.6 expected · usual 11

likely 2.7–34 · usual 0.0–22

Season

Starts ~19 April
Peak ~14 June

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid April – early November

Onset: mid April
Peak: mid June
End: early November

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late May – mid July
29% of annual activity
early August – early September
19% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: 0%/10Raw: +115%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 19.5× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.48).

Unusual years

10

2012
39
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
2013
48
only 0.7× the normal annual activity
2014
64
season ended 6 weeks late
2015
44
only 0.6× the normal annual activity
season began 7 weeks late
season ended 8 weeks early
2016
38
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
season ended 8 weeks early
2017
51
season began 7 weeks late
season ended 7 weeks early
2018
196
2.6× the normal annual activity
peak 4.1× stronger than normal
season began 8 weeks late
2022
114
1.5× the normal annual activity
season ended 7 weeks late
2023
72
season ended 7 weeks late
2026
77
season ended 7 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Baku City

Next 7 daysModerate27%

Fire season: last week · 0.0× the usual for this week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late May – mid July
Record year: 2018196
Trend: 0%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +115%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	75	1
2002	74	1
2003	72	1
2004	84	7
2005	72	2
2006	76	4
2007	84	9
2008	72	1
2009	66	3
2010	95	10
2011	108	24
2012	39	37
2013	48	48
2014	64	64
2015	44	44
2016	38	38
2017	51	51
2018	196	316
2019	83	174
2020	86	183
2021	96	196
2022	114	269
2023	72	169
2024	74	331
2025	49	230
2026	77	311

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.50×

Raw data

3.0×

usual = 1×

This month: 1.0
Usual (median): 2.0
Rank: 17 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 3.0× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 0.50×.

Next 7 days

Moderate

Full risk view

Moderate

Expected detections: ~1.2

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
Strong wind (9.9 m/s)↑
Humid air (61%)↓

Sat21°

Sun21°

Mon12°

Tue11°

Wed13°

Thu17°

Fri19°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 14% of past years at this time

Year to date77

#8 of 26 yearsNormal: 67

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Moderate

~1.2 expected · usual 0.8

Next 3 months

About usual

~8.6 expected · usual 11

likely 2.7–34 · usual 0.0–22

Season

Starts ~19 April
Peak ~14 June

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid April – early November

Onset: mid April
Peak: mid June
End: early November

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late May – mid July
29% of annual activity
early August – early September
19% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: 0%/10Raw: +115%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 19.5× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.48).

Unusual years

10

2012
39
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
2013
48
only 0.7× the normal annual activity
2014
64
season ended 6 weeks late
2015
44
only 0.6× the normal annual activity
season began 7 weeks late
season ended 8 weeks early
2016
38
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
season ended 8 weeks early
2017
51
season began 7 weeks late
season ended 7 weeks early
2018
196
2.6× the normal annual activity
peak 4.1× stronger than normal
season began 8 weeks late
2022
114
1.5× the normal annual activity
season ended 7 weeks late
2023
72
season ended 7 weeks late
2026
77
season ended 7 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson